What's Up With the Gallup Model? Latinos, Asians, Native Americans...basically our non-white/non-black population...are going to vote for the Republicans in this election by a 52%-42% margin
Well, that's what Gallup is reporting in its most recent poll and therein lies a tale.
Dems have been getting hammered in the national polling. I think this reflects real trouble for them in November, but...
I have a sense this is not a "normal" midterm election, and maybe the standard polling procedures aren't up to giving us a clear picture of what is going on with the electorate. This polling result reinforces that belief. These results are not credible given the Republican scapegoating of Hispanics in this election cycle. Hell, they are even telling them to stay home and NOT vote this time. While it is true that one should never say never, this is may be an exception to that rule.
Further compounding my doubts about the polling of this mid-term is this result from a recent Pew Research Study. (h/t to AW )
Notice the consistent bias in the traditional lineland sample over the landline and cell sample, R by +4 or more. Now that does not mean the Dems are not behind and in trouble, let us be clear about that. It does mean though that the double digit leads in the Congressional Generic ballot are probably off by a good margin. It is going to be close in November, and I fully expect we will lose some seats. It will NOT be the cakewalk too many of the pundits are suggesting. The only way for that to happen is for Dems and Independents to believe the skewed hype of the polls and NOT vote. If you needed a wake up call,consider this your call.
[Revision: I added a link to the Pew Study on 10-22]
